Commissioners agree to hold public meeting, so all interested persons can learn more details about monitoring of waterway on south Siesta Key and related issues
With the reopened Midnight Pass on south Siesta Key appearing to be stabilizing, a consultant who has been working with Sarasota County staff explained to the County Commission this week that they could pursue steps under an emergency order to keep it open if it began showing sufficient signs that it might close.
However, Mike Jenkins, senior principal engineer with ATM Geosyntec, cautioned that if circumstances arose that necessitated county pursuit of permits to keep the waterway open, that process would take years. One primary concern of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), Jenkins stressed, would be how action could affect Turtle Beach on south Siesta, as well as the North Casey Key shoreline, both of which are close to the pass and already considered critically eroded.
Chair Joe Neunder did ask that Jenkins work with county staff to broaden the list of circumstances under which the county could pursue emergency action.
Additionally, at Neunder’s suggestion, county staff will work on holding a public meeting — calling it a town hall, as Neunder suggested, or a forum, as Commissioner Teresa Mast proposed — to educate the public about the status of the pass, along with the steps that would be entailed in achieving regulatory agency approval to keep it open.
Weekly monitoring of the pass — including data collection — began on Oct. 29, 2024, Jenkins pointed out during his Sept. 9 presentation as the board met in Sarasota. That was just weeks after Hurricane Milton’s storm surge reopened the channel that Hurricane Helene initially re-established in late September 2024, he noted.
The depth of the “throat of the inlet” has ranged from 9.4 feet to more 17.7 feet, Jenkins said. “The trend is that it has gotten deeper, but it varies.”
Further, he reported, the minimum cross section of the channel so far — observed in January — was 629 square feet. The maximum — recorded in July, he added — has been 1,543 square feet. “It has since restricted a little bit. … It does oscillate.”
Last week, Jenkins noted, it was 1,124 square feet.
The data that is being recorded each week also has shown that the deepest section of the inlet has migrated “to the north a little bit,” Jenkins continued, and then it migrated back to the south, “a little bit.”
That migration has been only about 100 feet, he pointed out, which is “not that much,” compared to inlets’ usual action.
He reminded the commissioners that the inlet migrated “at a really high rate” to the north before it started to close more than 40 years ago. “To date,” he said, “we have not seen that. … At this point, it’s oscillating around the center.”
“At some point,” Jenkins added, “it will reach … a kind of quasi-stable cross section.” Some of the fluctuation, he noted, is likely a result of seasonal rainfall changes. “But right now, the general trend has been positive since January …”
The flow of water through the inlet has been measured, as well, he told the commissioners. In February, “The peak amount of water coming through the inlet … was on the order of 50 cubic meters per second.” He repeated the statement for emphasis. That amount of water, he pointed out, “can fill an Olympic-size swimming pool in less than a minute …”
Further, he said, in February, “About a quarter of the flow was going to the north channel.”
Yet, two weeks ago — in August, Jenkins noted — the peak flow was measured at 120 cubic meters per second. “That can fill over two swimming pools in a minute.” That is an indication, he pointed out, that the inlet is showing more of an ability to stay open.
Additionally, in August, he said, the data showed that about one-third of the flow was going to the north channel.
In response to a question posed by Commissioner Mark Smith, Jenkins characterized the status of the pass as “toddler stage,” which lasts about five years.
Jenkins also explained that modeling is taking into account the changes in the regional system from Big Sarasota Pass off the northern end of Siesta Key, south to Venice Inlet. He showed the board members a slide depicting that regional system prior to the Oct. 9, 2024 reopening of Midnight Pass, along with a current depiction of the system. Jenkins noted that the “hotter” shades of red and yellow represent stagnant water, while blues and greens reflect more flushing of water. “You can see that there is a significant difference,” he pointed out. “We are seeing a greater exchange of water within Little Sarasota Bay. … The new inlet is, what we say, communicating with the other inlets.”
Still, he acknowledged, “The exchanges are more significant during dry season,” as shown in the model. Yet, he continued, “New inlet; new scenarios.”
The regulatory issues
Jenkins then moved on to comments about the regulatory issues related to the new pass.
He referenced a past county effort to seek the necessary permit from FDEP to reopen the pass. “Lots of impediments” arose then, he noted.
With natural forces having reopened the waterway, Jenkins continued, “We are working under a different Florida rule that allows us to manage the inlet.”
He reminded the commissioners of the letter that County Administrator Lewis sent FDEP staff last year, making it clear that the county intends to keep the pass open. “At this point,” Jenkins continued, “FDEP concedes it is an inlet.”
“If the county develops a plan to dredge or put structures in,” Jenkins said, “then you are managing the inlet [and] state rules come into play. You have to have an inlet management plan,” and county staff has to secure permits.
When Commissioner Mast asked how long it would take to obtain the permits, Jenkins told her, “It would take years.”
From the state’s standpoint, Jenkins added, “The biggest issue is the potential” that the inlet would exacerbate erosion on adjacent beaches. FDEP staff would want to make certain that the inlet was not depriving any of the nearby beaches of sand, making them even more critically eroded, Jenkins explained.
All the county is trying to manage right now, Jenkins emphasized, is keep the water flowing between the Gulf and Little Sarasota Bay. That action is called an Emergency Response Plan, he said.
However, he continued, if, during the monitoring, observations indicated that the pass was starting to close again, “There is the potential for a corrective action that could be done without a permit.”
The County Commission, he explained, could issue an Emergency Declaration, under which “limited action could be taken,” but only through consultation with FDEP staff.
Three triggers would prompt such an Emergency Declaration, Jenkins said:
- The reduction of the inlet throat to fewer than 500 square feet.
- The movement of the inlet’s center line beyond its present location — approximately 1,000 feet north or south.
- An imminent closure as a result of storm effects or a similar event.
“I think these three items are a fantastic starting point,” Chair Neunder responded.
Would any other scenarios qualify as trigger points, Neunder asked, such as salinity stratification, as has occurred in Little Sarasota Bay in the past, or hypoxia, which would result in the deaths of fish and wildlife?
An environmental situation could be a trigger, Jenkins replied, “but we do not have enough data to inform us regarding what that trigger would be at the moment.” He emphasized that the three triggers he had described do not comprise “an all-inclusive list.” He pointed out that the environment is still adjusting to the pass’ reopening, so more data could be gathered later.
Commissioner Mast told Jenkins that, given the pass’ history, “I would like to see us have a more proactive than a reactive response.” She did acknowledge that the county’s relationship with FDEP “has ebbed and flowed.” A good relationship with the department “is vital,” she stressed. Staff needs to keep the agency apprised, she suggested, of the continuing improvements observed in water quality and seagrass growth in Little Sarasota Bay, for examples, in building a better foundation with FDEP staff in regard to efforts to keep the pass open.
She added that she believes the list of trigger points should “be very inclusive.”
Jenkins replied, “Right now, there is an evolving, collaborative network” of nongovernmental organizations and academic institutions focused on the pass; FDEP “is very much a part of it.” He also noted, “We’re working on having a shared database.”
Referring to the status of the pass, Commissioner Ron Cutsinger told Jenkins, “This is serendipity.” He wondered, Cutsinger added, whether a natural closure of the pass and then a reopening had occurred at any other point in the pass’ history.
Nonetheless, Cutsinger stressed the view of the board and community residents that the commission needs “to make absolutely sure” that it stays open this time.
When Cutsinger then asked whether Jenkins believes that the board members should consider erecting signage to protect the new seagrass, for example, or to protect manatees through the implementation of No Wake Zones, Jenkins told him, “That’s something that will evolve over time.” Data collection will help determine future action, he said.
The public meeting proposal
Commissioner Tom Knight was the first board member to propose a public workshop during which information about the status of the pass could be shared. “This is so important to our community,” he pointed out.
Perhaps the board members could ask County Administrator Lewis to work with Jenkins on a workshop, which — Knight said — should include an opportunity for questions to be asked.
“I am at your disposal at all times,” Jenkins responded.
Lewis pointed out that, with the creation of the new Stormwater Department, the oversight of the pass has shifted from what was the Public Works Department to the Planning and Development Services Department. He noted that Rachel Herman, manager of environmental protection, and her team “really do a great job” with community engagement.
However, Lewis suggested that instead of calling it a workshop, “town hall” might be preferable.
Chair Neunder made it clear that he liked the idea of a town hall, during which residents could interact with the experts on the issues related to the pass. He added that he would envision targeting the event especially to people who have 9-to-5 jobs, who are unable to watch County Commission meetings.
Lewis then came up with the idea of calling it a “community engagement event.” He and Herman and her staff could work with Jenkins, Lewis continued, “to figure out the best way to go forward.”
Commissioner Smith reminded his colleagues that, in the aftermath of the 2024 storm season, the county’s Emergency Management staff held meetings at high schools during which representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other agencies were present to provide information and answer questions. “Folks turned out in droves” for those sessions, Smith added.
“I think that’s a wonderful idea,” Neunder told his colleagues.
Knight suggested that the event be available through live-streaming, as well.