Storm surge caution emphasized
On the morning of Monday, Oct. 8, 2024, the information that the Sarasota County Emergency Management staff had received from the National Hurricane Center about the latest model runs for Hurricane Milton made it clear that the county had to expand its evacuation order to residents in Level C, Emergency Services Director Rich Collins recalled this week.
Already, county Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi had ordered evacuations of Levels A and B; A is directly along the coast.
During a Sept. 22 media event marking the first anniversary of the impacts of Hurricane Helene — which brought widespread damage to the county in late September 2024 — Collins talked about those model runs.
On the morning of Monday, Oct. 9, a county report based on National Hurricane Center data predicted “Life-threatening storm surge,” with 10 to 15 feet expected in Sarasota, Manatee, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
That report added the anticipation from the hurricane models that the surge would increase “throughout the day [on Oct. 10 with] peaks early [Oct. 11].”
As for the wind: The report said Category 3 levels or higher were predicted along the coast of Southwest Florida. Further, rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches were anticipated through Oct. 11, “with localized totals up to 18 inches.”
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale page on the National Hurricane Center website explains that Category 3 winds range from 111 mph to 129 mph. Under the heading Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds, the page says this for Category 3 storms: “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.”
A Category 3 hurricane is classified as a “major” storm, the page also points out.
At the time the county weather report was distributed on the morning of Oct. 9, Hurricane Milton was a Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 150 mph.
Thirteen evacuation centers opened at 10 a.m. that day.
During the Sept. 22 briefing, Collins pointed out, Milton “also marked one of the largest evacuations in Sarasota County history.” Between it and Hurricane Helene, he added, more than “9,400 people and their pets evacuated their homes and sought shelter.”
Although the county did experience Category 3 storm surge, Collins said during the Sept. 22 briefing, he stressed “It could have been catastrophic if that storm had moved” a little farther north, and it had not collided with a cold front, which eroded the back side of Milton.
“We were very, very blessed,” Collins added.
Tapfumaneyi reported during the briefing that Milton “brought 10 feet of storm surge in the southern part of the county,” while areas north of Manasota Key experienced 4 to 6 feet.
Hurricane Milton’s damage to residential and commercial structures in the county stood at more than $600 million as of Sept. 22, she said, with 9,600 residences and 1,100 commercial buildings affected. The county’s expense for recovery from that storm stood at approximately $169 million “and counting,” Tapfumaneyi said, noting that the figure does not include any of the damage that the county’s municipalities suffered.
Collins pointed out that he has been working in emergency services for 35 years. “Last year,” he continued, “was the biggest year” he ever had seen. Sarasota County not only experienced Tropical Storm Debby in early August, Hurricane Helene in late September and Hurricane Milton in early October 2024 — a period of about 60 days — but it also dealt with what Collins referred to as a “no-name storm” — “Invest 90L” in June 2024. That especially affected parts of the city of Sarasota, with its rainfall, he noted.
A county news release issued in conjunction with the Sept. 22 briefing pointed out, “One year ago on Sept. 26, 2024, Hurricane Helene brought significant storm surge, damaging winds, and historic flooding to Sarasota County, the results of which many residents in the community are still recovering.”
During the media event, Collins noted that Helene left the county with 2.4 million cubic yards of debris, “including displaced sand,” household goods, and construction and demolition materials.
All of the debris from Helene and Milton was collected within 90 days, he added, in accord with a directive issued by Gov. Ron DeSantis. “Our teams worked throughout the county to make that happen.”
Further, Collins said, the county’s Emergency Services staff coordinated with the Florida Division of Emergency Management on “the removal of approximately 7,200 cubic yards of waterway debris, including derelict vessels.”
The news release added that while Helene did not end up making a direct hit on Sarasota County, “many areas of the county were greatly impacted by the sustained winds of 44 mph, with gusts of 64 mph recorded at the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ), and storm surge estimated at 4 to 7 feet along the coast.”
The storm made landfall in Perry, Florida, as a Category 4 hurricane, the release noted.
During the Sept. 24 County Commission meeting, Commissioner Mark Smith, a long-time Siesta Key resident, also noted the anniversary of Hurricane Helene.
“Those of us on the Keys understand the definition of ‘barrier islands,’ ” he added. “We are the wave to break for the mainland.”
Then Smith told his colleagues, “I just wanted to recognize the folks that have been damaged and [say] that we’re doing what we can as a county to be resilient.”
He noted that the office in Siesta Village where he worked as an architect was a loss after Helene’s storm surge swept much of the island, although his house remained fine. The surge missed damaging his home by 1 foot, Smith said.
“It’s a dark day [on Sept. 26], I have to admit,” he added.
Stressing caution about storm surge and relying on past storm scenarios
Discussing Helene during the Sept. 22 media event, Tapfumaneyi stressed that one of the most valuable lessons the Emergency Management staff learned in 2024 was that “it does not take us being in a forecast cone in order to be impacted tremendously by these storms. Helene was over 100 miles offshore, and it still brought Sarasota County 5 to 6 feet of storm surge.”
The Wikipedia article about Helene explains, “By September 24, the disturbance [in the western Caribbean Sea] had consolidated enough to become a tropical storm as it approached the Yucatán Peninsula, receiving the name Helene from the National Hurricane Center. Weather conditions led to the cyclone’s intensification, and it became a hurricane early on September 25. More pronounced and rapid intensification ensued as Helene traversed the Gulf of Mexico the following day, reaching Category 4 intensity on the evening of September 26. Late on September 26, Helene made landfall at peak intensity in the Big Bend region of Florida, near the city of Perry, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h).”
Tapfumaneyi added that the residential and commercial damage wrought by Helene in the county exceeded $1.1 billion. Altogether, she said, approximately 7,600 dwellings and more than 5,000 commercial structures experienced damage.
Moreover, she continued, “The storm cost the county over $21 million in repairs to infrastructure, debris removal and protective measures.”
“We are just past the midpoint of this season,” Collins stressed during the briefing, and staff at that point was monitoring two weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean. One of those was right behind Hurricane Gabrielle, he noted.
In October, Collins continued, the Gulf and the Caribbean typically become more prominent generators of hurricanes.
“If you haven’t yet,” he said, “take the time to prepare. It only takes one storm. Don’t wait. Finalize your family’s plans today.”
Tapfumaneyi reiterated that point: “Now is absolutely the time to be working on your family plans.’ She also noted the potential for “very, very powerful storms” before the hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
Further, she stressed, people should not rely on the 2024 storm scenarios to anticipate what will happen as future storms approach Florida.
“Every storm is different,” Tapfumaneyi pointed out. It is important that county residents listen to local officials, she continued, explaining that the county team works always closely with the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service. Both organizations, she noted, give county Emergency Management staff “very important information,” in an effort to keep the public informed and to guide calls for evacuations.
Collins and Tapfumaneyi encouraged county residents who have not done so to sign up through the county for alerts.
Further, Collins urged members of the public, “Follow credible sources for information,” including the county website and local news media reporting.
During his remarks, Collins also noted the more than 2,000 Sarasota County Government employees who handle roles in emergency situations at the same time they have to continue their regular work. They fulfilled emergency roles, he pointed out, “for months after [the storms’] landfall.”
Collins conveyed his gratitude to them for all of their efforts, especially in regard to the long hours they worked and the time they had to spend away from their own families to serve the public.
The county news release did point out, “As our community continues to recover, the Resilient SRQ program is here to assist with recovery and mitigation efforts from 2024 storms through programs that are intended to best meet the unmet needs of Sarasota County, focusing on supporting low-to-moderate income households.”
Additionally, the release said, the Long-Term Recovery Group in Sarasota County “guides the community through the aftermath of major storms by providing long-term assistance and resources to individuals and families affected by disasters.”