Emergency Services Director Collins offers details about briefings, which guided staff action ahead of event
Using detailed graphics and video, Sarasota County Emergency Services Director Rich Collins made it plain this week that the National Weather Service (NWS) predictions regarding the rainfall that the county would receive from Tropical Storm Debby were far off the mark.
Beginning on Aug. 1, he told the commissioners during their regular meeting on Aug. 27, in Venice, the NWS informed the county’s Emergency Management team staff that the rainfall would be in the 6- to 8-inch range — and that was over five days. Instead, as Collins noted, the highest level recorded in the county was more than 18 inches, and that covered the period of approximately 36 hours, through about midday on Monday, Aug. 5.
On Monday morning, Aug. 5, Collins told the commissioners, county staff began receiving calls about flooding, including requests for assistance, in neighborhoods along Phillippi Creek.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) had sent the state’s Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) Task Force 6 to the county, Collins added, so that team joined county Fire Department and EMS personnel in responding to more than 500 calls.
The state has eight of those USAR teams, Collins said, with 40 to 50 people per team. Each group has its own supplies, including boats, he noted.
Four of those teams ended up working in Sarasota County to aid the public, Collins pointed out, with three having been diverted to the county after originally having been routed to the Big Bend area, where Debby struck the state as a Category 1 hurricane.
County staff received 9,748 calls to its 311 helpline between Aug. 4 and Aug. 12, he added. Beginning at 8 p.m. on Aug. 4 and continuing through Aug. 5, Collins said, the Fire Department responded to 590 calls, which marked a 220% increase in the department’s daily call count.
County leaders immediately requested a federal disaster declaration in the aftermath of the storm, Collins noted. That was approved on Aug. 10.
As of Aug. 27, he indicated, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had logged 2,696 registrations for assistance from Sarasota County residents, and it had approved $10.2 million in aid.
Matt Osterhoudt, director of the county’s Planning and Development Services Department, reported that what he characterized as “preliminary windshield damage assessment” inspections undertaken by staff had totaled 49,402 in the immediate aftermath of Tropical Storm Debby’s strike. The damage estimate was $49,474,249, he said, with 198 of the structures having suffered major damage, 464 with minor damage and another 342 with some effects from the storm.
Additionally, Osterhoudt said, letters had been sent to 623 property owners, notifying them that what are called “Substantial Damage” inspections would have to be conducted, with determinations made about the structural integrity of the buildings.
In response to a Sarasota News Leader question, Emergency Services Media Relations Officer Sara Nealeigh wrote in an Aug. 29 email, “Sarasota County typically conducts After Action Reviews (AARs) following incidents that significantly impact county operations, such as hurricanes. The findings and recommendations included in the AARs are shared with our citizens as they are completed. The county is in the process of hiring an outside party to conduct the AAR for Hurricane Debby.”
Briefing by briefing
During his remarks, Collins provided a series of slides showing maps included in the briefings that county staff had received from the NWS — beginning when Debby was still a tropical depression — to explain why staff acted as it did.
The “Excessive Rainfall Outlook” that the NWS issued at 5 p.m. on Aug. 1, Collins said, showed all of the Gulf Coast — including Sarasota County — in the “Slight” chance category for Sunday, Aug. 4, though the NWS moved Sarasota County into the “Marginal” category with its prediction for Monday, Aug. 5.
The updated graphics that the NWS released in its 7 p.m. briefing on Friday, Aug. 2, still had Sarasota County in the area predicted for a “Slight” chance of excessive rainfall for Sunday and Monday, he continued.
“Friday’s forecast for 48 hours prior to impacts,” he pointed out, “was key to the team making decisions, because of the time necessary to implement protective actions,” such as ordering evacuations and opening evacuation centers. That forecast, he stressed, did not indicate the need for those actions.
On Saturday, Aug. 3, Collins continued, the NWS’ updated rainfall models still put Sarasota County in the group where 6 to 8 inches was expected over five days, through 8 a.m. Aug. 8. However, the NWS did indicate the potential of isolated, higher amounts.
Additionally, on Aug. 3, he said, Sarasota County was among the counties include in a tropical storm warning area. When Debby became a Tropical Storm on Aug. 4, he added, the county was under a storm surge watch, but the county was not predicted to have more than 4 feet of surge, “which we didn’t.”
The 7 p.m. NWS briefing on Saturday, Aug. 3, still showed a range of 6 to 8 inches of rain in Sarasota County, Collins noted. The excessive rainfall forecast issued at the same time also kept the county in the “Slight” category through Sunday, though it was moved into the “Marginal” category starting with the Monday forecast.
By early to mid-evening on Sunday, Aug. 4, Collins said, the storm was north of Sarasota County, and the rainfall forecast as of that morning kept the county in the range of 6 to 8 inches.
A flood watch was issued for the county in the 7 p.m. briefing on Aug. 4, Collins continued.
By late afternoon that day, he pointed out, “Six-and-a-half inches had fallen in Sarasota County,” with the main impacts along the coast.
Yet, “based on all the information and conditions at that time,” Collins stressed, staff fully was expecting the county to operate under normal conditions on Monday, Aug. 5.
Collins then showed the commissioners a video that county Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi had been able to obtain, which had a time-elapse counter to indicate how long the storm was over Sarasota County. The first bands from Tropical Storm Debby “came through at 10:30 a.m. on Saturday.” The next band hit about 3:30 p.m., he added.
The video, he indicated, made it clear that “what we experienced was an outer band of the eyewall” extending over “the same part of the county for multiple hours. They call this ‘training,’ ” he explained. That means that a line of storms continually drops rain over a specific area, he added. In this case, the rain was falling over the county’s Phillippi Creek and Cow Pen Slough basins. The situation lasted from about 8 or 9 p.m. on Sunday until around midafternoon on Monday, Collins noted.
For comparison purposes
In late September 2022, Collins pointed out, Hurricane Ian dropped 19 inches of rain on North Port. “South County was extremely hit hard” by that storm, he said. However, he added, as South County residents were dealing with major damage, in North County, “things were beginning to go back to normal.”
During the “Invest 90L” event in early June, he continued, 6 to 8 inches of rain fell on downtown Sarasota in three hours, producing flooding on St. Armands Circle, as well as in the city itself.
With Tropical Storm Debby, he pointed out, approximately 18 inches of rain fell on the northern part of the county and in Lakewood Ranch from late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.