Even with conservative estimates, demand could exceed supply in 2028, 2031, 2032 and 2042
Under maximum monthly demand conditions, the Sarasota County water supply could exceed available supplies in 2028, 2031, 2032 and 2042 “and beyond,” the Public Utilities Department staff has reported to the County Commission.
And that is with a “more conservative projection, which includes a 5% buffer,” as noted in a staff memo in the board’s Jan. 13 agenda packet.
Generally, on an annual basis, the commissioners must approve and send to the Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority the county’s updated water demand projections, as part of the county’s agreement with that body, staff has explained through the years.
The Authority is the primary source of drinking water for Sarasota County residents, as Public Utilities data has shown in the annual consumer reports prepared for customers. The Jan. 13 staff memo put the average supply at up to 15.06 million gallons per day.
The staff memo explained, “The latest projections indicate that the existing and future contracted supplies from the Authority will meet the needs for the expected demand through 2047.” Then it noted concerns about the demand “under max month conditions” in specific upcoming years. The memo added, “While these estimates are intentionally conservative, Public Utilities will continue to carefully monitor the County’s growing needs. If additional supply becomes necessary, the County may request resources from the Authority seven years in advance. Based on current projections, this would place the next request for additional supply between 2035 and 2040.
“Overall,” the memo pointed out, “these projections provide a clear path forward and ample time for proactive planning, allowing the County to remain well-positioned to meet future demand.”
Additionally, the memo reminded the commissioners, “During the October 22, 2024 Board meeting, the [commission] approved the Third Amendment to the Peace River/Manasota Master Water Supply Contract. This amendment outlines the additional allocations Sarasota County will receive upon the completion of the Authority’s Surface Water System Expansion Project. Specifically, Sarasota County will gain an additional 1.5 [million gallons per day] MGD from the Authority in 2028, 2.5 MGD in 2029, and 8 MGD in 2033, bringing the total contractual allocation from the Authority to 27.06 MGD by 2033. These additional water purchase amounts will significantly strengthen the County’s capacity to meet the growing water demands.”
In November 2023, then-Public Utilities Director Mike Mylett told the commissioners seated at the time that, within the next 20 years, he and his staff expected the county to need another 12 million gallons per day to serve its customers. In 2023, he added, the county experienced its first day ever of demand that hit the 30 MGD mark.
Over the 25-year history of the county’s system, Mylett said, “We’ve had a pretty consistent growth rate on our utility.” Overall, he pointed out, that rate was just under 2% per year. However, Mylett added, “We’ve really grown really dramatically over the last three years.” During that period, the annual rate had been 5%.
“The growth is challenging our systems,” he told them.
As The Sarasota News Leader reported in its Jan. 16 issue, a county staff document issued just before the end of 2025, with highlights of county activities for that year, put the total population at 487,640, with 298,476 of them living within the unincorporated areas.
The University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research — whose data state legislators use for official purposes — puts Sarasota in the category of Florida counties that saw their populations increase by 10% or more from 2010 to 2020. BEBR estimated Sarasota County’s population at 479,027 as of April 1, 2024. By 2040, the organization projects the figure will climb to 495,100, as noted in the most recent data available on BEBR’s website. However, the chart shows, BEBR also expects the total to fall to 490,500 by 2045.
The Jan. 13 Public Utilities staff memo noted, “The methodologies used in this [water demand] report were based on population projections from [BEBR], Sarasota County’s recent growth trends, historical water production, and the retrofit of existing neighborhoods with potable water service through the Capital Improvement Program.”
In unanimously approving their Jan. 13 Consent Agenda of routine business matters, the commissioners agreed to the revised water demand projections from 2027 through 2047.
The rising figures
A slide in the Public Utilities Department PowerPoint presentation prepared for the Jan. 13 meeting shows that the estimated average water demand per day in 2025 was 24.73 MGD. That is expected to climb to 28.01 MGD this year and then to 31.3 MGD in 2031, 37.56 MGD in 2031, and 48.6 MGD in 2045 before dropping to 41.81 MGD in 2047.
The county’s total available water capacity was 34.084 MGD in 2025, the same chart said. However, that is expected to fall to 33.372 MGD in 2028, as the county’s contract with Manatee County reduces the amount of water that Sarasota County will receive from its neighboring jurisdiction.
The contract with Manatee County was “set to expire in April 2025,” the county staff memo explained, “which would have resulted in a 5 MGD reduction in supply for Sarasota County. However, the Counties extended this contract … in late 2023,” the memo added. “The updated schedule is as follows, with the goal of achieving net zero exchange between 2028 and 2038”:
- April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2025 — 5 MGD.
- April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026 — 4 MGD.
- April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2028 — 3 MGD.
- April 1, 2028 to March 31, 2038 —0.5 MGD.
The total available Sarasota County water capacity has been projected to be 36.372 MGD from 2029 through 2032; 45.972 MGD from 2033 through 2043; and 50.972 MGD from 2044 through 2047, the PowerPoint chart says.
Although any member of the board may ask for a presentation and/or discussion on a Consent Agenda item, the commissioners routinely approve that full agenda with no discussion. No one brought up the water supply issue before the Jan. 13 vote.