Figure for City of Sarasota-owned properties in $7-million to $10-million range
This article is a collaboration between Robert Hackney, opinion editor of the News Leader, and Rachel Hackney, executive editor.
On Oct. 16, a week after Hurricane Milton made landfall on Siesta Key as a Category 3 storm, initial local government damage estimates underscore what photos have shown.
In response to a Sarasota News Leader inquiry this week, Luke Mocherman, communications assistant with the City of Sarasota, reported in an Oct. 16 email that “our initial estimates of city properties revealed $7 [million to] $10 million in damages. Damage estimates on residential properties are still in progress.”
For unincorporated Sarasota County, not including the municipalities, a Preliminary Residential Damage Assessment as of 3 p.m. Oct. 16 cited 4,672 affected properties, with an estimate of $333,747,771, Genevieve Judge, the county’s public information and community outreach manager, told the News Leader.
As of Oct. 15, Sarasota County Emergency Services Media Relations Officer Sara Nealeigh reported that the amount of storm debris that already had been collected totaled 317 loads, consisting of 8,205 cubic yards. The cumulative weight, she added, was 182 tons.
As of early afternoon on Oct. 17, the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation reported that the estimated statewide insured losses from Hurricane Milton were more than $2.3 billion.
The News Service of Florida noted that, as of Oct. 11, 43,897 claims had been reported, “with estimated insured losses of nearly $586.5 million.
In the beginning …
At 6 a.m. EDT on Oct. 3, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a Weather Impact Briefing with the following information:
“Overview: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. The chance of development with the trough has now lowered to 30%. However, regardless of development we will see a heavy rain event start to unfold from Sunday through Thursday next week.”
The briefing added these points:
“Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
- “Marginal Risk of Excessive Rain on Monday for areas south of I-4.
“Impacts
- “Regardless of development, there is increasing confidence in higher rainfall chances from Sunday through Thursday.
- “Too early to determine what, if any, tropical specific impacts can be expected for West Central and Southwest Florida.”
Yet, one of the “spaghetti models” that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses — the Global Forecast System (GFS) — already was predicting that what the NHC calls an “Area of Interest,” or “AOI,” in the Pacific Ocean would cross Mexico, combine with the disturbance in the Gulf and then head straight for Sarasota County.
As the National Centers for Environmental Information, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), explains, “The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) weather forecast model that generates data for dozens of atmospheric and land-soil variables, including temperatures, winds, precipitation, soil moisture, and atmospheric ozone concentration. The system couples four separate models (atmosphere, ocean model, land/soil model, and sea ice) that work together to accurately depict weather conditions.”
At 5:12 p.m. on Saturday, Oct. 5, The Sarasota News Leader placed this post on its Facebook page:
“This is the 5pm forecast cone for [Tropical Storm] TS Milton … soon to be Hurricane Milton. TS force winds should be felt in our area by dinnertime Tuesday.
“Here’s bad news and worse news: The bad news is they are forecasting a Cat 3 storm with 115mph winds at landfall (and further rapid intensification cannot be ruled out at this time). The worse news — at least for those in Sarasota — is that we will be on the “upwind” side of the storm, which likely will be moving at probably 15mph as it comes ashore. That means our steady winds will be more like 130mph. That will push way more gulf water onshore than we saw during Helene.
Remember the maxim: “Shelter from wind; run from water.” If you live on the barrier islands or the bayfront on the mainland, RUN.
It has been a century since this area has had a direct strike by a hurricane. Our time very well may have come.”
On the morning of Saturday, Oct. 5, Sarasota County Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi announced via a prerecorded video, “It does appear that we have a high likely chance to have a storm that is going to be developing over the Gulf of Mexico and potentially impacting our area midweek next week. So we do have at least a couple of days to find out the more precise forecast. We’re going to be working very closely with the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center to get the most precise forecast …”
She asked that all county residents be prepared with plans in place, especially as many were still continuing their recovery from Hurricane Helene.
In her Oct. 5 prerecorded evening report, Tapfumaneyi began with the comment, “We know that we’ve had multiple messages coming out about Tropical Storm Milton.” She added that she wanted to provide an update, based on information that county staff had received from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Again, she referenced “a lot of messaging happening about the storm,” specifically noting, “a lot of hype about the impacts to our area.” Tapfumaneyi stressed that county staff was getting its information directly from the NWS and the NHC “about what [the new storm]” will mean specifically for Sarasota County. “We’re meeting with them multiple times a day,” she added of the staffs with the NWS and NHC. “We’re going to know more information tomorrow [Oct. 6],” she continued, “as the storm gets closer. They’ll be able to give us a more precise forecast.”
She also pointed out, “There’s still quite a bit of time between now and when they’re expecting impacts,” which, she said, “should be sometime late Tuesday and early Wednesday. … Please stay tuned.”
Yet, she again urged residents without hurricane preparedness plans in place to proceed with those initiatives. “This is definitely the time to do it.”
Shortly after 5 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 6, the News Leader posted the following on its Facebook page, referencing the NHC graphic released at 5 p.m.:
“The intensity models are forecasting significant strengthening in the central gulf, and the NHC is predicting the storm will reach mid-Cat 4 strength north of the Yucatan Channel. Even higher strengthening is possible while out in open waters.
“Increasing shear as a result of a frontal boundary over the peninsula will impact the storm as it nears Florida, which is why the intensity forecast for landfall still is 120mph. But bear in mind that gusts will be in the 150mph range. These are extremely destructive wind speeds, and on the coast will be accompanied by high storm surges potentially worse than Helene.
“Moreover, the disruption of the shear likely will cause Milton to spread out and become a larger storm. This would increase the wind radii for hurricane force, 50kt and TS [tropical storm] force winds, which will spread effects over a larger portion of the Florida west coast. Currently the forecast is for the storm to be moving about 12-13mph at landfall, but this estimate likely will change between now and Wednesday morning.
“The NHC still is predicting the center coming ashore near Sarasota, but that precise location is less important given the greater possibility of an enlarged wind field.”
The call for evacuations
On the morning of Monday, Oct. 7, county Emergency Management Chief Tapfumaneyi ordered the evacuation of Levels A and B in the county, cautioning that residents in Level C also might be told to leave their homes. (At 9 a.m. on Oct. 8, county staff did order the evacuation of residents in Level C.)
Anyone living in a mobile or manufactured home or on a boat also was ordered to evacuate, given the prediction of storm surge up to 12 feet on the county’s barrier islands.
“You will not survive this storm surge,” Tapfumaneyi stressed to people in Evacuation Levels A and B, if they refused to leave their homes.
County staff also announced that the Sarasota County School District would open 14 evacuation centers at 10 a.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 8. Anyone needing assistance to reach a center could call the county at 311, and transportation would be provided.
Terry Connor, superintendent of the Sarasota County Schools, said that although classes had been canceled through Wednesday, Oct. 9, he felt it was very likely that school would be called off all week. In fact, classes ended up being canceled through Monday, Oct. 14, with staff told to return on Oct. 15 and students notified that classes would begin again on Oct. 16.
Additionally on Oct. 7, the City of Sarasota announced that it would be shutting off water to its barrier islands on Oct. 8, in an effort to protect the utilities infrastructure.
Two minutes before 6 p.m. on Oct. 7, the News Leader posted this on its Facebook page:
“Here is the 5pm Monday forecast map from the NHC. Please note that the hurricane now has sustained winds of 180mph, with further strengthening possible overnight. This is an extraordinarily powerful storm.
“Fortunately, the NHC expects external forces to cause the storm to weaken some before landfall, although still expected to be around 125mph, with 155mph gusts over western Florida. The impact of both high winds and high storm surge will cause catastrophic damages, particularly in coastal areas seriously damaged by Helene.
“This truly is a ‘never before’ storm for our area, and everyone in evacuation zones should be leaving now. If you live on any of the barrier islands, do not try to ride it out. This will likely be an unsurvivable hurricane along the Sarasota coast, especially after so much damage from Helene.”
On Tuesday, Oct. 8, Sarasota County Public Utilities staff began shutting off potable water services and lift stations for wastewater services to customers on Siesta Key and Casey Key.
“This precautionary measure protects the community’s infrastructure, which may be inundated by storm surge and high winds,” staff pointed out in an advisory.
“Sarasota County Public Utilities team members are prepared to deploy when conditions are safe and restore water services to those who are impacted,” the advisory added.
Early in the afternoon of Oct. 8, county staff announced that access to Casey Key, Siesta Key, Manasota Key and Longboat Key would be closed at 7 p.m. After that, anyone wishing to leave those islands could continue to do so, staff said, but no entry would be allowed to the islands until after the post-storm search-and-rescue efforts were completed.
“Uniformed personnel will be posted at the following intersections to ensure access is closed,” county staff pointed out: John Ringling Causeway, just west of Golden Gate Point in Sarasota; Siesta Drive bridge, standing at 1400 Siesta Drive in Sarasota; Stickney Point Road Bridge, located at 1512 Stickney Point Road in Sarasota; Blackburn Point swing bridge, standing at 733 Blackburn Point Road in Osprey; Albee Road Bridge, located at 913 Albee Road in Nokomis; and the Manasota Beach Road Bridge, standing at 2055 Manasota Beach Road in Englewood,” staff advised the public.
At 5:25 p.m. on Oct. 9, the News Leader posted this NHC update on its Facebook page:
“Milton presently is about 100 miles from Sarasota, moving to the northeast about 15mph.” A predicted turn to the east had not happened, the post noted, but it could occur at landfall.
“Based on radar images, it appears the center will come ashore in northern Manatee County sometime in the next two or three hours.
“Winds locally have been at [tropical storm] force, with higher gusts, and this should worsen as the center reaches the coast. Because [an] extratropical transition has begun, the storm is enlarging. The northwest quadrant is now where the highest winds are observed, and this should remain the case even as the storm crosses the state. “Counties north of Tampa Bay and on a line east-west across the state will see the effects of this throughout the night.
“The wind shear Milton was expected to encounter today has opened the storm on the south side. While this has sheared away much of the precipitation bands on the south side, the winds — and their effect on storm surge along the coast of Sarasota County — will continue to be strong.”
County Emergency Management personnel warned the public that the National Hurricane Center had begun anticipating storm surge up to 15 feet along the county’s coastline. (As it turned out, the surge did not end up being as high, Emergency Management Chief Tapfumaneyi said after Milton had swept through the county.)
Targeting Siesta
At 8:30 p.m. on Oct. 9, the NHC issued this advisory: “NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west coast of Florida.
“A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA … station in Venice. A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport.”
In a 9 p.m. update on Oct. 9, the NHC wrote, “A sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a gust of 102 mph (165 km/h)km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport.”
In what the NHC characterized as a rare occurrence, Milton jinked just a bit north of Siesta Key after making landfall, with its eye ending up passing over the city of Sarasota.
As the storm approached the county’s coast, vertical shear created by a stalled front over the state had significantly weakened the storm, so it its winds fell from 150 mph sustained to only about 115 mph sustained in the last 24 hours before landfall.
In addition, almost the entire southern semi-circle of the storm was sheared away.
In a 7 a.m. briefing issued on Oct. 10, the NWS reported that Milton had exited the Florida peninsula.
In the immediate aftermath of Milton, Florida Power & Light (FPL) reported that it serves 299,540 customers in Sarasota County and all of those had been affected. Shortly after 1:30 p.m. on Oct. 17, the company had revised the total served to 308,060. Of that number, 1,553 still had no power.
FPL had reported on Oct. 11 that it expected to have 95% of its Sarasota County accounts restored by the end of the workday on Oct. 17. It slightly exceed that goal, county staff said.
In the ensuing days after Milton arrived on Siesta Key, county staff has provided details about numerous resources to help the public. (See the related article in this issue.) Staff has continued to deal with recovery for county operations, as well.
No visits, please, to county-owned and operated beaches
In its evening report on Monday, Oct. 14, county staff said that employees still were evaluating “our local beaches for direct damage and impact from Hurricane Milton.” Preliminary assessments for “possible accretion or erosion for public beaches, renourished beaches, and other hot spots began Friday, Oct. 11,” the report added.
“Facility assessments began Friday, Oct. 11, on buildings and other amenities at beach parks. Some public beach parks, including North Jetty Park, Turtle Beach Park, and Caspersen Park, were substantially impacted by Hurricane Helene,” staff wrote in one of its updates.
“All beach parks, including Siesta Beach, will remain closed until further notice as efforts continue to restore access for residents, business owners, and utilities to the area,” staff has continued to report. “While some parks may appear ready for use, others require significant work. Residents are asked to be patient as recovery efforts progress. For a full list of open parks and preserves, please visit sarasotacountyparks.com.”
What about other county parks?
County staff announced this week that crews with the Parks, Recreation and Natural Resources Department “are using magnets to remove small metal debris,” such as nails, to ensure that athletic fields are safe for play.
Among additional cleanup efforts, staff has been tackling debris removal, fence repairs, and checks of lighting equipment, an advisory noted.
Parks and Recreation in the city of Sarasota
In an Oct. 15 email to City of Sarasota leaders, Jerry Fogle, director of the Parks and Recreation Department, wrote the following regarding what he characterized as the “fluid update for the parks and recreation facilities”:
- Street clearing was about 95% complete.
- “We will have to dedicate one bucket truck and operator to clear all the hangers over the streets, which will take a couple of weeks to complete.
- “Safety issues were addressed, and Payne Park Playground is open to the public.
- “City Hall is getting cleaned up this morning …” Intermittent closures of parking areas will be necessary because of the amount of damage that needs to be cleaned up.
- Medians were being addressed that morning; this work will take several weeks to complete.
- Whitaker Park — Fence has been installed across width of park.
- Bayfront Park — Fence installed across entire front entrance to park; approximately 1,100 feet of fencing to be installed along U.S. 41 frontage and sidewalk. The latter project was expected to take place on Oct. 16.
- Gillespie Park Playground — Currently caution-taped, with a 6-foot-tall fence to be installed on Oct. 16, “all the way around playground.”
- Laurel Park — Fence panels to be installed across entrance today
- Payne Park Tennis Center is open to the public.
- Bobby Jones Golf Club is open to the public.
- Arlington Complex is currently closed because of National Guard operations.
- Robert L. Taylor Community Complex is closed because of Florida Power & Light operations.