Of approximately 40 hurricanes in North Atlantic Basin to reach Category 5 in past 100 years, 40% have occurred in the past 20 years.
Although David Tomasko, director of the Sarasota Bay Estuary Program (SBEP) was appearing before the Sarasota City Commission on Oct. 21 to talk about the latest “report card” on the health of Sarasota Bay, much of the discussion ended up focusing on the effects of climate change.
The quality of water in the bay “is getting better,” Tomasko pointed out, referring to data reflecting samples taken in the various bay segments between 2006 and 2023. No segments of the bay have the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) designation of “Impaired,” he added.
However, he told the commissioners, “The problem that we have here is it’s getting warmer. Our planet is changing.”
“Hurricane landfall records [for] Florida … go back to the 1550s,” Tomasko said, noting that that period preceded the first permanent English settlement in the New World, in Jamestown, in 1607.
“Good data” exists for the past 100 years or so in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, he continued. Of the approximately 40 hurricanes during that time frame that reached Category 5, he said, 40% occurred in the past 20 years.
Moreover, Tomasko noted, sea level rise was documented at about an inch a decade a decade over the past 5,000 years. Yet, in the past 20 years, the sea level has climbed 6 inches, he pointed out.
He reiterated that statement for emphasis.
“In the year 2050,” Tomasko said, the average sea level” — what is called the “tide level” — “will be what today’s tide level is, and high tides will be 9 inches on top of that.”
All of the investments that local governments are making in water and wastewater infrastructure will be facing the effects of warmer ocean and Gulf of Mexico waters and higher rainfall averages, he continued.
In June, he reminded the commissioners, the “Invest 90” storm produced a record one-hour rain event in 50 years of data.”
That was followed by Tropical Storm Debby’s inundation of Sarasota in early August, he said, and then Hurricane Helene in late September and Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on Siesta Key on Oct. 9.
“We are seeing a lot more tropical storms,” Tomasko continued. “We’re seeing tropical storms being more impressive.”
He showed the commissioners a graph that depicts the expectation of rainfall in different time frames.
Referencing a comment that Spencer Anderson, director of the Sarasota County Public Works Department, has made to the County Commission, Tomasko told the City Commission on Monday that the county’s stormwater model for new development is based on a 100-year storm event. That involves a 1% annual chance of 10 inches of rainfall in 24 hours.
Over the past 40 years, he added, “I’ve lived in Tampa and St. Pete and Sarasota. … I’ve lived through four events that are only supposed to happen once in a 100 years.”
Moreover, he noted, “What we’re seeing with our hurricane frequencies” is more powerful storms showing up on a more regular basis.
A data set that began before the start of the Civil War includes all of the hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin that reached Categories 3, 4 and 5, he said, showing the commissioners a slide reflecting that information.
“Now it’s very rare when we don’t have a [Category] 3, 4 or 5.”
Yet, he pointed out, “The next 30 years will be warmer than the last 30 years.” With the average temperatures climbing, Tomasko added, “We’re loading … more bullets into the revolver and playing Russian roulette,” as “warm water and warm moist air” fuel the more powerful hurricanes. The “vast majority” of the planet’s heat is absorbed by the oceans, he pointed out.
(A day after Tomasko’s remarks, The New York Times published an article titled Three views of the water, written by Christopher Flavelle. In it, Flavelle noted, “Global warming is making storms more severe because warmer air holds more water. At the same time, more Americans are moving to the coast and other flood-prone areas.”
(Flavelle further pointed out, “Since the 1990s, the cost of flood damage has roughly doubled each decade, according to one estimate. The federal government issued two disaster declarations for floods in 2000. So far this year, it has issued 66.”)
In response to a comment that city Commissioner Kyle Battie made on Oct. 21, Tomasko noted that Sarasota Bay was as warm as 95 degrees during the summer of 2024.
One of the graphics that Tomasko presented showed the trend in temperature averages for Sarasota County from 1901 through 2021. He noted that the shades of blue represented cooler temperatures; warmer temperatures were reflected by shades of yellow and brown. For the past 20 to 40 years, he noted, “It’s mostly yellows and browns.”
Sarasota used to average two to three days a year of freezing temperatures, he reminded the board members. In recent years, freezes have been rare, he added, with perhaps only three in the past 10 to 15 years.
What can be done to prepare for the future?
Commissioner Erik Arroyo asked, “What can we do? How can we prepare for this?” Should the city enact regulations to require higher elevations for new structures, for example, Arroyo inquired.
“Lining your wastewater collection system is going to be really, really helpful,” Tomasko responded.
The City of Bradenton, Tomasko noted, has “lots of problems with its wastewater treatment plant right now. It went septic a couple of weeks ago,” spilling 50 to 60 millions of gallons of wastewater.
(An Oct. 23 report in the Tampa Bay Times said, “As Milton barreled toward land on Oct. 9 with relentless rain, the city of Bradenton began dumping what would become an estimated 20 million gallons of partially treated wastewater into the Manatee River.
(“Four days later,” the Times article continued, “the city’s treatment facility ran out of a chemical needed to clean wastewater. Back-to-back storms had delayed the shipment. Before it arrived, officials sent another 18 million gallons of partially treated wastewater into the river.”)
Bradenton leaders need to line about 70 miles of that wastewater collection system,” Tomasko told the city commissioners.
“When the water table gets high,” he explained, [rain] seeps into the pipes,” and overflows of sewage mixed with rainwater are the result.
Some utility pipelines in the area are 50 to 70 years old and made of clay or terra cotta, he noted.
When Arroyo asked about the potential of using barriers to try to prevent flooding in the city, Tomasko told him, “I think the private market insurance [industry] is going to have to figure out if it makes sense to continue to build as we have in the past on barrier islands. I think barrier islands are going to be where climate change hits us. That’s Ground Zero.”
“We’re also baked into a certain amount of what’s going to happen,” Tomasko continued, referring to the carbon dioxide emissions worldwide, which have fueled climate change.
“The scary thing,” he added, “is Greenland.” If all of Greenland’s ice melted, he said, that would result in 20 feet of sea level rise. If just 5% of the island melted, he pointed out, that would create 1 more foot of sea level rise.
“We’re going to have to deal with ‘blue sky’ flooding more often,” he told the commissioners, referring to flooding at high tide as a result of sea level rise.
Riverview Boulevard in Bradenton and the Village on Longboat Key already are experiencing that type of flooding, he noted.
Yet, he said, “You can’t solve the problem if you don’t face it.”
Amen. Someone needs to tell the Governor (and the GOP) that we can’t change words on a page or a document or continue to deny climate change to make this go away. We must have real leadership to unite people and act on plans and actions to address the real problems.